Jul 30, 1998

 

GLOBAL FDI FLOWS ON SUCH A SCALE IS INCONCEIVABLE.

 

Referring to the various moves for multilateral investment rules, and episodes of failure towards this end in the post-war period, the authors note that the Uruguay Round accords, particularly the GATS and TRIMs accords, have added momentum to these efforts.  

However, most of the recent successes have been regional. Even the OECD efforts to negotiate an MAI is a regional one, agreement among a core group of similar economies. The advantages of such agreements are fairly clear.

But not so clear are the advantages of a multilateral approach for developing countries where the contrasts are much greater, and most of them are exclusively hosts.  

While TNCs can be important agents to help build and shift a country's competitive advantages, the terms on which this is done remain variable. Developing countries would still need to employ technology and industrial policies to help domestic firms become more efficient and competitive by strengthening entrepreneurial, managerial and technological capabilities. 

And while reimposition of strict controls and restrictions on inward FDI is no longer desirable, there are reasons for limiting FDI reliance. Policy autonomy, including use of administrative guidance, is much more difficult to realize where foreign-owned firms with an easier exit option have a strong economic presence. And heavy reliance on FDI raises the danger that a country might get locked into an uncompetitive range of economic activities, particularly where TNCs are strongly export-oriented. If rising cost pressures cause the TNCs to leave before strong backward and forward linkages as well as local technological capacities are established. There can also be detrimental consequences to BOP when the activities are linked to heavy import reliance and profit remittances.  

Hence, the case for a strategic approach to FDI appears to have lost little relevance and there is little economic rationale for developing countries to limit their policy options by signing a multilateral agreement in the hope that this will bring large increases in FDI inflows. While the Uruguay round has introduced restrictions on the policy options of developing countries, these should not be exaggerated. The WTO agreements may in fact strengthen the hands of developing countries to establish closer regional economic ties - both of trade and investments.