Development: South vulnerable to 'Millennium Bug'

Washington, Jan 26 (IPS) -- Developing countries are no strangers to plagues of insects but their food, health care and economic systems are highly vulnerable to a new parasite: the so-called millennium bug.

Also referred to as the 'Y2K bug', it will be born next Jan. 1, spawned by computer programmes written to recognise only the last two digits of the year. Come 2000, many computers will take the '00' at the end to mean '1900' and shut down or malfunction.

Trade, transportation, and financial markets could be disrupted as a result, as might electricity supplies, food distribution, and health systems. Whatever the consequences, developing countries could be the worst affected, the World Bank warned Tuesday.

"There is no consensus on how bad the Year 2000 problem will be or how much it will cost to fix," said Joyce Amenta, the Bank's leading Y2K specialist. "What we do know is that most developing countries are unprepared."

The Bank said that only 15 percent of 139 developing countries surveyed were taking real steps to head off the problem. Another 24 percent were aware of it but had yet to act; 38 percent had appointed a national Y2K coordinator but taken no practical measures. "The (challenges of) daily
survival faced by developing countries have distracted governments from fixing the Y2K problem," Amenta told reporters.

Bank officials said that they and U.S. officials would urge participants at this year's World Economic Forum to increase international collaboration on the problem and to support a 'Y2K International Cooperation Centre'. The annual meeting of the world's financial and political elite begins next Monday in Davos, Switzerland.

"If ever there was a time for collaboration, partnership and sharing of information and knowledge, this is it," said George West, manager of the Bank's 'information solutions group'. Otherwise, he noted, each country would have to "reinvent the wheel."

Mohamed Muhsin, in charge of the Bank's own preparedness for the millennium bug, warned: "With less than a year left before January 1, 2000, it is just not possible to fix all of the world's Y2K problems in time."

Global estimates for fixing the problem run as high as $600 billion. The Bank has lent some 30 million dollars to help Argentina prepare for Y2K and last week approved a $29 million loan to Sri Lanka for the same purpose.

The issue is a hot one in the wealthy world, too. Authorities in Britain reportedly have advised citizens to stock up on food and have asked the armed forces to ready themselves to contain civil unrest. The U.S. military is busy shielding its advanced weapons systems - including nuclear missiles - from the 'bug'. Industrial nations, highly dependent on computer technology, may appear to be at greatest risk but not even the least automated societies will be spared, according to Hugh Sloan, Bank information technology specialist for Africa.

"The impact could in fact be greater because the developing countries are more dependent on fewer and older computing systems and they have many more competing national demands for scarce resources," Sloan said. African regional cooperative efforts, such as electricity provision,
were especially vulnerable, he added.

The Bank, based on its own surveys, has divided its borrowers according to their Y2K awareness.

Some developing countries with high awareness of Y2K issues were: Argentina, Benin, Cape Verde, Chile, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, Ghana, Grenada, Guinea, Lebanon, Lesotho, Mexico, Morocco, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa,
Swaziland, Syria, Tanzania, Thailand, The Gambia, Tunisia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Venezuela, and Yemen.

Cameroon and Uganda were rated as having 'high-to-medium' awareness of Y2K issues. Among those with 'medium awareness' were: Bahamas, Barbados, Bolivia, Botswana, Brazil, Burma, Central African Republic, Colombia, Republic of Congo, Djibouti, Dominica, Eritrea, Ethiopia,
Gabon, Guatemala, Guinea-Bissau, Haiti, India, Indonesia, Iran, Jamaica, Jordan, Kenya, Laos, Malawi, Mauritania, Mauritius, Namibia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia, Seychelles, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago and West Bank and Gaza.