8:53 AM Mar 3, 1995

NEW STRAW POLL IN RUGGIERO-KIM RACE FOR WTO JOB

Geneva 3 March (Chakravarthi Raghavan) -- A new informal head count of individual delegations to the GATT, on their support between the two remaining candidates in the race for the top job at the World Trade Organization is to be held next week, trade diplomats said Friday after a morning meeting of key country delegations.

But whether this head count on the relative support between Renato Ruggiero and Kim Chul-Su will produce a consensus choice of the Director-General of the World Trade Organization by the 15 March deadline seems at best a toss-up, given the overnight comments out of Washington ruling out both the EU nominee Renato Ruggiero and the Korean candidate Kim Chul-Su.

News reports overnight from Washington had quoted the deputy US Trade Representative, Mrs Charlene Barshefsky, Thursday as saying that the US did not support either Ruggiero or Kim and wants to start afresh the selection process since no acceptable candidate had been put forward.

Barshefsky was quoted as saying to reporters "The United States would like to see a new process begun. Obviously there is an absolute stalemate. There is no acceptable candidate that has been put forward."

Some of the delegates knew about this public comment of Barshefsky as they went into the morning conclave, but many others (who however had known even Thursday that the US did not want Ruggiero) were not aware of these comments. No one appears to have adverted to it.

The decision to undertake a new straw poll, and confined to the two candidates now remaining in the field, was taken at the Friday morning meeting of the some 20 odd countries that met informally.

This view would go before a full informal heads of delegations meeting Friday evening and when, as generally happens in the WTO/GATT decision-making process, this cooked up formula of key countries is approved by the wider meeting, the WTO General Council Chairman, Amb. Kesavapani of Singapore is to start the head-count on Monday and go on till Friday.

He is to convey the results to the two delegations (EU and Korea) and then to others, presumably in the hope that the loser will withdraw, enabling the consensus selection of the other -- presumably expected to be Ruggiero.

However, there were some who suggested at the meeting that this may not be a good way of trying to promote a consensus choice.

The Friday meetings were convened by Kesavapani before the announcement of Mexican president Carlos Salinas's withdrawal and he had decided to go ahead with the consultations in an effort to keep the pressure and ensure a quick decision.

Many Third World diplomats, supporting one or the other of the candidates so far, have been complaining that the stalemate was harming the WTO and its system.

Coming out of the morning meeting, Amb. Jean-Pierre Leng of the European Union, told reporters that the new count on a choice would be between the two candidates and that the US ambassador Booth Gardner had not objected nor had he conveyed the reported remarks (of Barshefsky) that neither of the two candidates were acceptable to the US.

Gardner who spoke to reporters separately said he had not objected to the new head count, but by implication left the impression that it did not mean anything more.

When a reporter sought to pin him down on the new WTO head being chosen out of the two, Gardner suggested that "theoretically the choice is between the two, if nothing changes between now and Friday".

Other participants in the meeting said that it was not only the US that was silent, but also other supporters of Salinas, none of whom had time to consult and reassess their positions.

One of the Latin American diplomats said that consultations among the Mercosur and other countries in the region were under way, and perhaps something clearer would be known by mid-week next.

It would not be wise to speculate now and no premature conclusions should be drawn from out of the meeting, the diplomat said.

At the meeting the Korean delegate would appear to have sought some delay in the new head count, but was opposed by the Europeans as also Chairman Kesavapani who wants to use the momentum to get a successor to Peter Sutherland.

The Europeans believe that with Salinas withdrawal, many of his supporters from Latin America, who culturally and otherwise feel closer to Italy and Europe, would support Ruggiero and not Kim, and that some of the Asians too would switch, and their candidate will come out with a commanding lead.

In such a situation, they think, even if the Americans are opposed, they would be isolated and, just as they did not block a consensus over the choice of Singapore as the venue for the first Ministerial Council meeting, they would acquiesce in Ruggiero choice.

But there are some trade diplomats who feel that things may not work out this way. They fear that even if the US is "stared down" and acquiesce, the election of the 67-year old former Italian trade minister by this process will not provide the kind of leadership, administrative capacity and ability to speak out against the visible proclivities of the Europeans and the United States to disregard the spirit of the agreements and even its letter in many instances that the WTO system sorely needs.

If the successor is unable to match up to the fairness with which Sutherland spoke up and pressured the two majors on behalf of the developing countries and get results, he will be seen to be a tool of the majors, the trading system will remain hobbled.