Dec 6, 1988
MORE UNCERTAINTIES ON EVE OF MID-TERM MEET.
MONTREAL, DECEMBER 4 (IFDA/CHAKRAVARTHI RAGHAVAN) – On the eve of the formal ceremonial opening Monday morning here of the Ministerial mid-term review meeting of the Uruguay round Trade Negotiations Committee, there were growing uncertainties over the outcome, and whether any deals will be struck, and if so at whose expense. Even the Organisation of the conference, which it is said, has to wind up sometime Thursday, had not been settled as of Sunday evening, and will be decided only Monday afternoon. While the temperatures outside dipped to minus ten in the day, with biting winds, inside the Palais Des Congress the temperatures were being raised in what appears to be deliberate acts of brinkmanship by major protagonists. The United States, the EEC, Australia (for the Cairns group) and Canada were among those who held press conferences, reiterating their previously stated positions and sometimes in shriller tones and with flexing of muscles. Apart from these protagonists, the chairman of the TNC, Uruguayan Finance and Economy Minister Ricardo Zerbino and GATT director-general Arthur Dunkel also held briefings attempting both to inject an air of optimism and a discerned (by them) political will an part of all to achieve a successful outcome, and at the same time trying to lower expectations. Dunkel was asked at his press conference to comment on the U.S. statement that if it was unable to get satisfactory agreements on its priorities of agriculture, services and Trade-Related Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), the United States was prepared to "walk away" from Montreal without an agreement, "agree to disagree" and continue negotiations over the next two years. Dunkel underscored the words "agree to disagree", and said Montreal was not the end of the negotiations which had two years to go, and it might well be that Ministers would agree they had not been able to agree and there was need for further work to find agreements. Several GATT diplomats involved in the negotiations as well as other observers were puzzled at this new public stance of both the United States and Dunkel, since both in a sense have been responsible for focusing so much on Montreal and converting the negotiations over the last two years into planning for the Montreal event. GATT and its meetings are always held behind closed doors, and there is little "transparency" as far as the ordinary man in the street is concerned -- with the media having to rely on official briefings or chasing and talking to delegates. But the Organisation of the conference here has made it even more difficult -- with so much security not only at the conference halls and lobbies, but even in private hotels where delegates are staying, that it is difficult to reach them by phone or personally. Even observers from some inter-governmental organisations who are admitted to some of the negotiating groups were unable to gain access to conference halls. The international textiles and clothing bureau's secretary had to seek the help of journalist to get access to the GATT press office to relay a release issued by the ITCB countries here, after a meeting chaired by the Indonesian Minister of Trade, Arifin Siregar. At the organisational level, the talk was still that four negotiating working groups of the TNC would be set up, each under a minister, to tackle the various areas of. Negotiations, where the Ministers have been presented with texts in square brackets, and with some fundamental differences to be ironed over. These include sectors in the area of goods -- tariffs, textiles and clothing, agriculture, tropical products, safeguards, trips, dispute settlement, Functioning Of the GATT System (FOGS) -- and the services issue. The report of the Surveillance Body which oversees the implementation of the standstill and rollback has no square brackets, but still needs clear direction and guidance from Ministers as to ensure implementation of the commitments so far observed only in breach. It would appear that the United States and other industrialised countries want to organise three separate groups to deal with agriculture, TRIPS and services, and dump all the remaining issues, mostly of concern to third world countries, in one group. While it would help third world delegations that have few bodies to field, it would also mean that all these important issues would be siderailed, and on the ground that there was not enough time, pushed back to Geneva negotiators with mere procedural devices. Some of the ITCB countries are considerably worried that in this process the textiles issue would go back to Geneva without any political guidance on negotiating an end to the discriminatory Multifibre Arrangement (MFA), and they would be spending the next two years in endless negotiations going round and round in concentric circles. In a statement adopted and issued to the press here, the ITCB which met under chairmanship of the Indonesian Trade Minister Siregar in effect demanded a freeze on any further restrictions in this trade, rejecting any efforts to link phasing out of the MFA to other issues in the Uruguay round. The statement underscored that the Punta del Este commitments on standstill and rollback applied equally to the textiles and clothing sector as to other sectors. No trade restricting or distorting measures additional to those already agreed under existing bilateral arrangements should tie introduced in this area of trade pending the successful outcome of negotiations for integration of this sector into the GATT. Also the linkage of other issues in the Uruguay round with the phasing out of restrictions on developing country exports of textiles and clothing could not be accepted. The textile industry and lobbies of industrialised countries are present here in full strength to make sure that their governments do not yield. Several of them are also in delegations as advisors only the consumers and the public of the north who have to pay the price have no representatives here. GATT does not accept observers from non-governmental organisations. The U.S. textile lobby and senators from the textile states have apparently warned the incoming Bush administration that if it yields On textiles here, its nominees for the posts of U.S. trade, commerce and treasury secretaries would have problems in the confirmation hearings. The EEC Commission's internal documentation apparently suggests that the present MFA-4, which would expire in august 1991, should be followed by two other agreements before any winding up is considered. Statements Sunday by the United States, Australia for the Cairns group, and the EEC and others suggested that the chances of any understanding on agriculture here are rather dim, and if the United States persists in its "linkage" there will be no accord either on tropical products.