6:39 AM Dec 6, 1993

US, FRANCE, EC IN BRINKMANSHIP

Geneva 6 Dec (Chakravarthi Raghavan) -- With just nine calendar days to go, the United States and the European Community are due to resume at Brussels Monday their bilateral talks to resolve their differences in the Uruguay Round and join forces to conclude it.

The Monday talks between US Trade Representative Mickey Kantor and his team including US Agriculture Secretary Espy and the EC's Trade Commissioner Leon Brittan and his team is a followup of last week's meeting between the two, and the subsequent discussions in Geneva between top officials on both sides.

While on Friday, there was an element of optimism about the two sides having clinched a deal, with only some details remaining to be settled, by Sunday the mood had changed -- though it was not clear whether it is part of the political 'theatre' of the US and France to prepare their domestic lobbies for a climbdown by both, but presenting the outcome as a success, or part of the GATT poker game.

Even as US and EC top official negotiators were meeting in Geneva on Sunday, the GATT Director-General Peter Sutherland and the Brittan travelled to Paris Sunday for separate meetings with French Prime Minister Edouard Balladur.

Sutherland, after the meeting, said that if no agreement was reached Monday at Brussels, there would be a 'crisis', while Balladur as well as other French officials and ministers tempered the upbeat mood that had been prevailing on Friday.

Sources close to the US and EC negotiators in Geneva suggested that they were having problems across a range of issues, including the agriculture issue where it had been thought the two sides had clinched a deal in Brussels on Thursday and Friday, and that the EC on French insistence is being forced to slide back.

While it was very difficult to get a clear picture out of the disinformation flowing out of both camps, the confusing reports and signals, from out of Paris and Washington and the Geneva talks, suggested to some that the United States' and Mickey Kantor's "poker game" and "brinkmanship" of keeping things on edge and reaching an accord only at the last minute is being sought to be matched by France.

At one stage on Sunday evening, the US was reportedly even hinting that the Kantor-Brittan talks Monday might be called off -- perhaps as a counter to the French pressures.

Ultimately, the two sides worked well past midnight, travelling early Monday morning to Brussels to join the ministerial teams and report both their agreements and outstanding differences.

Some sources in Geneva suggested that Monday's meeting could well result in a US-EC crisis, and that the ultimate outcome could be even a smaller package than the thin one on the table, so as to enable the US and EC still to 'save something' and lock in the developing countries into the major concessions they have so far made in terms of rules, TRIPs and the GATS -- areas where they have taken higher obligations for the benefit of the major corporations of the North.

It could even be a jointly manipulated crisis by the two so that others would be in a panic and accept the deal cooked by the two, without seeking any changes of their own and/or withdrawing or modifying their various offers on market access and services, one trade official said.

Perhaps indicative of the uncertainty was that a press conference scheduled for Monday noon by Canadian Trade Minister was suddenly cancelled without assigning any reasons.

Meanwhile, on Saturday, Swiss and French farmers groups demonstrated in Geneva against the GATT/Uruguay Round deal. Before going round in procession, the demonstrators assembled outside the UN's offices in Geneva -- the GATT is housed down the hill from the UN offices, and the police had cordoned off the area -- where they were addressed by their own leaders, and also speakers representing farm groups in United States, Canada, India, and Japan.

The Indian representative, Prof. Nanjundaswamy who has been heading a mass agitation of farmers in his Karnataka State (in southern India) against the US TNC Cargil and other transnational seed and agribusiness firms, announced that irrespective of the outcome in the Round, the farmers would carry on their agitation and take to direct action to close down transnational businesses. He also announced a boycott of Pepsi, Macdonalds and other food and beverage consumer TNCs, as well as film stars promoting them -- such as Michael Jackson and Madonna.

The US and Canadian groups, claiming to represent family farms (as against the big business US farm interests), supported European farmers and demanded preservation in GATT of import restrictions operated along with domestic supply management, and at the same time providing for measures against export dumping.