6:17 AM Jul 16, 1993

BALL LOSES SHINE - EVEN BEFORE PLAY

Geneva 16 July (Chakravarthi Raghavan) -- Given the hoopla with which the Quad/G7 "market access package" announcement was made at Tokyo, and greeted and welcomed by the GATT leadership, the resumed Uruguay Round play in Geneva appears to be like cricket match where the ball has lost its shine even before the fast bowlers marched on to the field.

Negotiators from the major trading partners and the medium, small and minor players are all saying that while there are the various bilateral meetings, almost like the morning practice at the nets on the cricket grounds, there is no play and serious negotiations are possible or can be expected until the second week of September.

Whether there can be any fast play and conclusion on this basis, or whether, after seven years of talks, even the batsmen of the small players can be fooled by the spin of the googly bowlers in September, is clearly an open question.

The new GATT chief, Peter Sutherland, after the Tokyo announcement, quickly summoned a TNC meeting and set a work programme and told the delegates at the TNC on Wednesday that the Quad negotiators in Geneva, meeting delegations bilaterally and plurilaterally, have been clarifying and explaining the results and are "ready to engage their trading partners in immediate negotiations with the aim of achieving a concrete market access result multilaterally acceptable to all."

But at the meetings this week of the market access group under Germain Denis within the Group of Negotiations on Goods (GNG) and that of the Group of Negotiations on Services (GNS), both intended to set off serious bilateral negotiations on market access in goods and services, the Quad found themselves in embarrassment at being unable to provide, individually or collectively, clear answers to the searching questions for clarifications and more information.

The Financial Times, which has been rooting for the GATT and the Round, quoted Friday EC negotiators as saying that they would not even be ready to start any tariff talks until July 25, by when they hope to make their own internal assessment of the trade effects of the Tokyo package, and that they viewed the current phase as more of a "clarification, rather than a negotiating stage".

At Wednesday and Thursday morning meetings of the Germain Denis Group, very searching and details questions were put on the Tokyo agreement for elimination of tariff and non-tariff measures in some sectors, and the plans for 'other tariff cuts'.

According to the document that Japan got circulated to the TNC (as the Quad ministerial accord at Tokyo), the language used for elimination of tariff and non-tariff measures, the Quad said "We have thus far identified a common list of product sectors for complete elimination of tariff and non-tariff measures (pharmaceuticals, construction equipment, medical equipment, steel -- subject to the Multilateral Steel Agreement, beer, and subject to certain agreed exceptions, furniture, farm equipment and spirits. We shall seek to add to this list as many sectors as possible."

Clarification of the agreements to end all non-tariff measures was sought by several of the participants, as also on the "agreed exceptions" and details of these provided at 6-digit tariff line.

Though the Wednesday meeting of the group was extended till Thursday to provide clarifications, the Quad were unable to do so. At one stage the US offered to provide written clarifications, but the Thursday evening deadline for this passed without any written clarification, reportedly because the Japanese did not want to agree to anything in writing without their senior official negotiator, due to reach Geneva late that evening, having a chance to look at it.

Presumably, one negotiator said, the Quad agreement is a carefully crafted language to paper over their differences, and each member is wary of the other putting in a paper to make his own view more official.

Any event, the Germain Denis group is only to meet again on 27 July, a day prior to the 28 July TNC meeting to make an assessment before the summer break.

Though the Quad members have said they would provide clarifications in bilateral discussions, many participants noted that even as it is the majors are the ones guilty of not following so far the agreed modalities within the group, with major 'gaps' in their offers on the table and circulated to participants who have put in their own offers or schedules.

While the EC officials have told others that they would need a week or more to complete their own assessments and engage in the tariff-cutting exercise, and perhaps can only provide clarifications before the summer break, the US claims it is ready to negotiate, and has set up meetings with some important trading partners.

However, some US sources admit that their own position is still far from clear, particularly in some of the sectors of interest to the smaller trading partners and developing countries, including in areas like textiles and clothing, or even in services.

In the latter, the real outcome of the Quad appears to be the three or four wanting to push liberalization in areas where they are strong and competitive like financial services and take over thus the Third World economies, but not willing or able to move forward on others of interest to the developing world. Also, if the US wants exclusion of maritime services, as now under the Jones act, and the EC of the audio-visual services -- there appears to be no change in these positions, despite the Quad language of their agreement to continue to work towards satisfactory solutions -- the question would arise whether others too would not be entitled to make similar exclusions in other areas.

While the Quad accord has talked of the extensive list of existing offers and ways to further expand them, several Third World delegations said that the offers cover delivery using the mode of capital investments or cross-border communication, but not through labour.

Even where there are some suggestions to this effect, they are hedged in by the immigration control privileges where, the industrialized countries appear to be unwilling to be subjected to multilateral scrutiny and discipline.

Apart from the July 28 TNC meeting to take stock, Sutherland has called for a TNC meeting on 30 August to set the autumn programme for market access as well as other negotiations to conclude the Round.

But GATT diplomats say that realistically, work will begin only from 13 September -- after the traditional August summer holidays here which stretch till the Jeunne Genevois (local long-week end) holidays of 9-12 September. And while, negotiations can still be concluded in the next 8-9 weeks, it will need much more of that elusive "political will" from the industrialized world to give, and not merely grab and take.