TODAY MOVING TOWARD WHAT ANALYSTS IN BEIJING AND MOSCOW VIEW AS A POTENTIALLY ASIAN GOVERNMENTS.

9:23 PM Apr 24, 1996

TODAY MOVING TOWARD WHAT ANALYSTS IN BEIJING AND MOSCOW VIEW AS A POTENTIALLY ASIAN GOVERNMENTS.
Analysts, commenting on the visit this week to Beijing of Russian President Boris Yeltsin, say that while neither China nor Russia seek a return to Cold War years, the two see mutual benefits for forming an Alliance that would counter perceived Western interference in their traditional spheres of influence. In Moscow's case, the concern is of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation's (NATO) expansion into Eastern and Central Europe.

For Beijing, 100,000 U.S. troops in Asia are seen as a potential obstacle to the speedy reunification of Taiwan with the Mainland and to China's eventual bid to claim disputed territory in South China Sea waters.

"One of the reasons for Moscow's new emphasis on the Far East is its disenchantment with Western democracies, which do not regard the Kremlin as an equal partner. Just look at NATO's expansion plans,"says Alexei Voskresenski, a senior expert with the Russian Academy of Sciences' Far Eastern Studies Institute.

On the other hand China sees the cementing of ties with Russia serving its own ambitions. "China wants to secure all its borders, especially the one with Russia so that it can turn its sights to the South-east," says a military analyst in Beijing.

So that although senior Chinese communists detest Yeltsin's democratic credentials, analysts say they will welcome him with open arms, particularly with his visit coming on the heels of the visit to Seoul and Tokyo, of U.S. President Bill Clinton.

During his three-day trip, Clinton not only reaffirmed the continued presence of U.S. troops in the region, but together with Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto, carved out an enhanced role for Japan in Asian security.

The extended U.S.-Japan Security pact has been viewed with "concern" in Beijing and analysts say China sees the April 24-26 visit of Yeltsin as the perfect response to the Clinton visit.

Yeltsin will be accompanied to Beijing by heads of three other ex-Soviet republics -- Kazakhstan, Kirgizstan and Tajikistan -- for the signing of a five-party agreement on confidence-building measures in the area of former Soviet Central Asian border.

These accords will pledge not to target army exercises against each other as well as exchanges of military observers from time to time. While Russia and China have already agreed not to target nuclear weapons against each other, talks on troop reduction on both sides of the Sino-Russian borders continue.

"We need a very stable, predictable and transparent relationship," says a senior Russian diplomat in Beijing. "Having the longest border in the world with China, geographically we are destined to be together."

Russian-Chinese bilateral documents to be finalised include a joint declaration on international policy cooperation in the Asia- Pacific region, as well as agreements on military aid and energy, transport and communications projects.

Also on the list is a pact on three disputed plots of land on the border, which are to go to China under a 1991 delimitation treaty.

Yeltsin's political methods run counter to Beijing's authoritarian political philosophy, but at the same time his commitment to return disputed border lands to China has been appreciated by the Chinese leadership.

The pace of Russian-Chinese relations has steadily gained momentum since Yeltsin first visited in December 1992. Two years later the Chinese reciprocated, coming to Moscow to sign no-strike first nuclear accords.

And while Beijing indicates there can be no return to the Stalin-Mao 'eternal bond' of the 40's and early 50's, they also maintain that the tension of the 1960s when rival regimes nearly went to war in 1969 in a border clash over a disputed river island, are also long forgotten days.

The 2,700-mile-Sino-Russian-border that once witnessed bitter clashes between Russian and Chinese armies, now hums with bilateral trade that touched 5.46 billion dollars last year.

"The combined export potential of China, Hong Kong, Macao and Singapore tops 474 billion dollars," says Vilya Gelbras, a professor at the Moscow University College for Afro-Asian Studies.

"The sooner we realise that in the Asia-Pacific region Russia is bordered not by weak former colonies, but by emerging industrial giants - the better," adds Gelbras.

For China's part, Beijing needs Russian military know-how to upgrade its armed forces. The Chinese navy, with aspirations to assert its territorial claims, recently purchased at least ten Kilo-Class attack submarines from Russia.

Military experts in Beijing see submarines as an integral part of the Chinese naval thrust since China has developed a new generation of submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

Russia has also sold high-performance SU-27 fighter aircraft to China with licence for their indigenous production in Chinese avionics factories. Valued at two million dollars, the deal initially got Beijing 24 fighters with another 72 to come over the next two years.

"Moscow believes the Russo-Chinese alliance together with the political and military bond of the Commonwealth of Independent States can become a counter-balance to NATO expansion," Voskresenski says.

"But such an alliance must not be directed expressly against the West," says the Russian analyst. "Russia should keep its Western and Eastern policies on different planes allowing it geopolitical stability and intensive contact with all parties".